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NumTrend v2.2

Numeric Trendline Calculator Tutorial

Numtrend form

This program has a very simple interface. Now, let's use an example in using this program.

Numtrend chart1

Suppose we want to take two low points and project out into the future for when price drops again. I can draw a trend line on my chart.

Numtrend chart2

Now for each day I can watch to see if price stops at or breaks below my support line. Each day the value is different, as marked by the green dots you see on the chart above. Unfortunately, if I drew this by hand my accuracy is going to be off, many times by several points. If I use a charting program that allows you to accurately draw the line, you still have to move your pointer over each point on this line and try to get as close as possible in determining the value.

Numtrend chart3

The trend line once again proved quite useful in determining support. That is why I like to use them in my analysis of the markets. However, I also like to know what the EXACT price is at each of those green dots, since many times price will stop precisely at this value. The NumTrend program makes this easy.

In the box marked POINT A, enter the low of A. This actually was 436.00 on May 30, 2001 (Soybeans). In the box marked POINT B, enter the low of B. This actually is 437.75 on May 31. Next, enter the number of bars from A to B. This is one. Enter that in the box marked "Number of price bars from Point A to B:". Next, determine how far out you want to calculate along the trend line. In our example, we count out 11 bars from POINT B to where we want to start calculating values. So we enter 11 into the box marked "Number of price bars from Point B forward:". Click on the Calculate button or press ENTER on your keyboard to calculate. Here is our result.

Numtrend form 2

Eleven (11) bars from POINT B was June 15, 2001. As you can see on the price chart above, it was the low that hit our trend line before moving back up again. On June 15, 2001, the low price was exactly 457.00, the result of our calculation. There is just something to be said for numeric values.

Suppose that price didn't reach the line on June 15th. The next day we simply recalculate using 12 instead of 11, and so on and so forth. That way, we get the exact support value to look for each day until it either holds price or breaks below. Both pieces of information is useful if you draw good trend lines in the first place.

There is a HELP page for this program to provide additional information such as short-cut keys, etc.